Having a strong sense of controlling one’s life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered.
Money’s greatest intrinsic value—and this can’t be overstated—is its ability to give you control over your time.
What they did value were things like quality friendships, being part of something bigger than themselves, and spending quality, unstructured time with their children.
The historical odds of making money in U.S. markets are 50/50 over one-day periods, 68% in one-year periods, 88% in 10-year periods, and (so far) 100% in 20-year periods.
Stanford professor Scott Sagan once said something everyone who follows the economy or investment markets should hang on their wall: “Things that have never happened before happen all the time.”
The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising.
But my favorite summary of the theory came when he mentioned in an interview that “the purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” It’s hard to overstate how much power lies in that simple statement.
The End of History Illusion is what psychologists call the tendency for people to be keenly aware of how much they’ve changed in the past, but to underestimate how much their personalities, desires, and goals are likely to change in the future.
Nassim Taleb explained: “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” I like that.